Reflections on a cloudy day Egypt. The snapshot of history.
us accept as valid the following sentence: "in dynamic systems, anything can trigger indeterminate." Yes, chaos theory.
Then do the appropriate metaphor: societies as dynamic systems, in which X can trigger an event consequences of dimensions never envisaged. Now go to Egypt.
After two weeks of continuous protests, the Egyptians were able to Hosni Mubarak, the president who ruled the destinies of the Arab country for over three decades, stepped down. Overwhelmed by conflicting pressures from all sides, United States, Algeria, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, the Council of the Armed Forces of Egypt, the "people", the international media opinion, ETC. Mubarak-probably inadvertently-built final irony, that will be remembered for his resignation: he escaped to sneak within 24 hours after telling the world not to resign.
On hearing the news, thousands of people took to the streets of Cairo, Alexandria, Suez to celebrate, and millions of non-Egyptians were filled with joy and happiness for a country that is remotely known, deified by a snapshot of history that they lived, animated by a situation that is more complex than it seems, victims of the media circus and the sentimentality that often produce such situations. Hollywood with an Arabic accent.
Because yes, let's face it, we look forward to stories like this: the good people against evil dictator. If the dictator is gone, the good people will be happy. The equation is so simple that everyone understands and can say in the matter. What is a geographically and conceptually distant and complex situation, it becomes close and intelligible. And then yes, immediate feedback, in the heat of the moment, because the scandal is over and we should not pass up.
The issue also can be simplified into a struggle between absolute (right and wrong.), Where there is room for further reflection and analysis, and it seems that the only thing desirable is to win the right, at any rate, the sooner the better.
But the truth is that reality is always more complex and a waiver does not mean much in relative and absolute and that is something that, in my opinion, in Mexico we tend to forget quite often. We believe that the person-symbol ruled that focuses our most visceral hatred, things should go well automatically. I think in 2000, when he left the PRI from the presidency, many wish since 2006 with Calderon (or AMLO, Elba Esther Gordillo, Peña Nieto, Ebrard, or whoever you want), but we still do not realize that is not simple. So the flow of Mexicans views shouting: "Out, Mubarak!", and wishes that the thousands of Mexicans distracted "If the Egyptians did it, so can we."
Returning to Egypt. Mubarak's resignation does not mean the elimination of poverty, corruption and lack of opportunities. Has anyone paid attention to the demands of the Egyptians, regardless of the waiver? Yes? Doctors, bureaucrats and transporters, much of the middle-class sectors, joined the protests by the time it took Mubarak in power, or to cry for democracy, but purely and simply because they wanted to raise their wages , their qualities of life increased significantly.
It was Mubarak, regardless of who comes, will be impossible to meet these financial demands in the short term. And then the eye with the real revolution: the mental change that these protests operated in the minds of the Egyptians. From being a largely apathetic and apolitical society, it is possible that from now on much more interested in the affairs of public life, with a critical and challenging. For better or for worse, it can also be the case that every requirement is fulfilled not try to punish the responsible street pressure, leading to more chaos and pressure to the exhausted economy Egyptian. Time will tell.
Further evidence of the uncertainty, one of the most visible calling Mubarak's resignation turned out to be the Muslim Brotherhood, a radical Islamist group that assassinated Anwar dramatically al-Sadat, the president who signed the Peace Treaty between Egypt and Israel. "The main criticism of the Muslim Brotherhood? What was corrupt Mubarak, who had much power? No, of course not. That was an ally of the West and had led the country to lose its Muslims. One might assume, then, that the Muslim Brotherhood will be more important in the political arena in the coming months and years. At least they would no longer be considered an illegal group. And that it is a huge step. While it is true that the Muslim Brotherhood is not so purist and dogmatic as it was in the sixties and seventies, there is always the possibility that an Islamic fundamentalist seeks to catapult from the new position of strength.
finish with a reference to those Mexicans who are asking "if Egypt could, why not us?". Simple sentences: because the Egyptians decided to take to the streets, do not send text messages brave and thrown from their computers at home, not discussing how did we do, but acting carried by the glow of the moment that cost more than 300 lives ("here are willing to risk to go Calderón?), motivated by an irrational anger focused on a phrase that did bring together all the other requirements:" Out Muabarak ", which is not, in real terms significant changes for people of flesh and blood that came out to protest.
